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Sorry but your review could not be submitted, please verify the form and try again. Make a wish list for gifts, suggest standard repertoire, let students know which books to buy, boast about pieces you've mastered: Music Lists are as unique as the musician! Easily share your music lists with friends, students, and the world. Create New Music List. Additionally, bias in road placement may lead to roads being placed in upland forest types in which fire severity tends to result in lower tree mortality than it does in lowland forest Cumming , thus causing less disturbance along roads.
Regardless of the mechanistic explanation, these results suggest that trend estimates from roadside sampling may be biased and therefore may not accurately reflect trends at the strata level. Our spline curves suggest that much of this bias could be assessed via off-road sampling beyond approximately m, where confidence intervals from our curves overlap zero, from the road.
Thus, we suggest our results could be used to design off-road sampling to either augment roadside sampling or to test whether the trends from the roadside sampling frame are reflective of trends in bird populations in the off-road, e. Our study has implications for conservation decisions grounded on BBS trend estimates as well as for monitoring design.
First, our study implies that there is a risk of inaccurate status assessment for boreal forest birds. Simulations by Harris and Haskell suggest that habitat and disturbance biases can cause substantial misrepresentation of rates of population change, with one simulation suggesting underestimation of a population increase by 2. Bias in that range could be sufficient to substantially change species status assessments. Short- and long-term trend estimates in the boreal forest are likely also affected because numerous species preferentially use specific age classes of forest Hobson and Bayne , Cumming and Diamond , Schieck and Song Furthermore, annual area burned has increased in the Canadian boreal forest over the last four decades Gillett et al.
The resulting increase in early successional habitat should result in increased carrying capacity for species associated with those habitats and thus tend to result in positive species trends. Given that fire is generally underrepresented in the road network, potential positive population responses to increased early postfire habitat could go unnoticed or underestimated by roadside sampling. Olive-sided Flycatcher and Common Nighthawk Chordeiles minor are notable examples of species that have been listed as threatened in Canada, based in part on BBS trend estimates, that are associated with early postfire habitats within the boreal forest Schieck and Song ; thus, they are species for which biases could in theory cause inflated estimates of population decline.
The increase in the average area of forest burned annually in Canada also suggests a concomitant decrease in the area of mature forests, which has previously been shown to influence trends of species associated with old forest habitats Betts et al. Accounting for these biases will also be important for future status assessments because annual area burned is projected to possibly double by the middle of the 21st century Balshi et al , which combined with ongoing industrial expansion Schnieder et al. Although we point to biases in representation along established BBS routes, it is important to note that the greatest impediment to monitoring is the current lack of sampling in the north.
As such, the biases we report here underestimate the overall bias in data contributing to trend analyses because our results represent the degree of bias that would occur if sampling coverage were complete. In addition, it would be useful to investigate how the addition of more complete road network layers may change our results and whether tertiary roads or trails may reduce bias in the sampling frame.
Caution would be necessary in implementing monitoring using some of these smaller roads and trails, however, because some may become abandoned or may be purposefully closed e. Therefore, we recommend that new BBS routes should be established in all degree blocks for which there is appropriate road coverage.
Furthermore, we suggest that spatial stratification methods such as generalized-random tessellation Stevens and Olsen or systematic sampling be investigated as methods of selecting degree blocks for sampling within a given year to capture variation in disturbance rates in an unbiased fashion within the limitations of the road network. In addition, rotating panel designs see Gitzen et al. Unfortunately, the lack of volunteers, logistics, narrow roads, and heavy industrial truck traffic may make it difficult to sufficiently sample the boreal forest.
It may, therefore, be necessary to examine the possibility of using paid staff or reimbursing volunteers to increase sampling in northern areas.
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Finally, there are several strata in which the boreal road network likely has too little road coverage to accommodate BBS sampling at all, including virtually all of BCR 7. In addition, roads in several regions may be too dangerous to sample via roadside sampling.
Thus, it is apparent that trends for these strata will require reliance either on off-road point counts or BBS style surveys e. As such, it would be beneficial to build on other work e. Keillor-Faulkner Sir Sanford Fleming College provided useful comments on earlier versions of the work. Trottier Canada Centre for Mapping and Earth Observation provided useful information on road network layers. This manuscript benefitted from useful comments by the K. Hobson, the subject editor, and two anonymous reviewers. Song that contributed of the direction of this work. A hierarchical model combining distance sampling and time removal to estimate detection probability during avian point counts.
Avian Monitoring Review Steering Committee. Environment Canada avian monitoring review: Environment Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. Global Change Biology Reliability of the Breeding Bird Survey: Using spatially explicit simulations to explore size distribution and spacing of regenerating areas produced by wildfires: Past, current and future fire frequency in the Canadian boreal forest: Uneven rates of landscape change as a source of bias in roadside wildlife surveys.
Journal of Wildlife Management Canadian Wildland Fire Information System.
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The Canadian migration monitoring network: Songbird community composition versus forest rotation age in Saskatchewan boreal mixedwood forest. Breeding bird declines in the boreal forest fringe of western Canada: Forest type and wildfire in the Alberta boreal mixedwood: Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires. Geophysical Research Letters Design and analysis of long-term ecological monitoring studies.
High-resolution global maps of 21 st -century forest cover change. Land cover sampling biases associated with roadside bird surveys. Avian Conservation and Ecology 2 2: Resistance of the boreal forest to high burn rates. The effects of stand age on avian communities in aspen-dominated forests of central Saskatchewan, Canada.
Forest Ecology and Management Large-scale conversion of forest to agriculture in the boreal plains of Saskatchewan. Predicting origins of passerines migrating through Canadian migration monitoring stations using stable-hydrogen isotope analyses of feathers: Avian Conservation and Ecology 10 1: Recent changes in the fire regime across the North American boreal region—spatial and temporal patterns of burning across Canada and Alaska.
Potential roadside biases due to habitat changes along Breeding Bird Survey routes. How well do consistently monitored breeding bird survey routes represent the environments of the conterminous United States?
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Wildfires in boreal ecoregions: Journal of Geophysical Research: How well do regional or national Breeding Bird Survey data predict songbird population trends at an intact boreal site? Avian Conservation and Ecology 9 1: Does expected future landscape condition support proposed population objectives for boreal birds? Importance of well-designed monitoring programs for the conservation of endangered species: Using binomial distance-sampling models to estimate the effective detection radius of point-count surveys across Boreal Canada.
Roadside surveys of boreal forest birds: University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Christmas Bird Count provides insights into population change in land birds that breed in the boreal forest. A programmatic review of the North American breeding bird survey: Development of boreal ecosystem anthropogenic disturbance layers for Canada based on to Landsat imagery.
Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing R Development Core Team. Changes in bird communities throughout succession following fire and harvest in boreal forests of western North America: Canadian Journal of Forest Research Comprehensive conservation planning to protect biodiversity and ecosystem services in Canadian boreal regions under a warming climate and increasing exploitation. Managing the cumulative impacts of land uses in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin: Conservation Ecology 7 1: Calibrating indices of avian density from non-standardized survey data: Methods in Ecology and Evolution 4: Spatially balanced sampling of natural resources.
Journal of the American Statistical Association Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: Large forest fires in Canada, Journal of Geophysical Research Estimated avian nest loss associated with oil and gas exploration and extraction in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. Avian Conservation and Ecology 8 2: Representativeness of land cover composition along routes of the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Global role for sustaining bird populations. Pages in J. Boreal birds of North America: Studies in Avian Biology no.
Citizen science reveals an extensive shift in the winter distribution of migratory Western Grebes. Stable and efficient multiple smoothing parameter estimation for generalized additive models.
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Fast stable restricted maximum likelihood and marginal likelihood estimation of semiparametric generalized linear models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B: Series B 73 1: Mixed effects models and extensions in ecology with R.
Published here under license by The Resilience Alliance. Go to the pdf version of this article. The following is the established format for referencing this article: Biased representation of disturbance rates in the roadside sampling frame in boreal forests: Avian Conservation and Ecology 10 2: Van Wilgenburg 1 , Elizabeth M.
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Unfortunately, little BBS coverage is available in the boreal forest, where increasing concern over the status of species breeding there has increased interest in northward expansion of the BBS. However, high disturbance rates in the boreal forest may complicate roadside monitoring. If the roadside sampling frame does not capture variation in disturbance rates because of either road placement or the use of roads for resource extraction, biased trend estimates might result.
In each of BBS routes, the area disturbed within multiple buffers away from the road was calculated and compared against the area disturbed in degree blocks and BBS strata.