The resulting congestion is burdening cities with surprisingly high costs. The social stresses of the new growth should be on your radar. The experience of one high-tech hub suggests homelessness can be an unintended consequence of rapid economic growth. The number of homeless has fallen in most US communities. But it is climbing in affluent coastal cities such as Seattle, in King County, Washington.
The exhibit suggests why: On a single winter night in , volunteers counted 11, homeless people, an annual average rise of 9. Over the same period, the FMR has risen an average of An essential component of the solution in Seattle and other prosperous urban areas is more affordable housing. In King County, as rents climbed, the stock of affordable units 1 1.
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Defined as affordable to households making 50 percent or less of the local median wage. Since , units affordable to those households have almost halved. The homeless population had to compete with higher-income individuals for these units. Action would be needed on three fronts: Investments in affordable housing account for about 85 percent of the extra funding required. Housing subsidies—payable to landlords to make unaffordable accommodation affordable—may be the most effective investment, as they quickly boost the supply of cheap housing.
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Some corporations keen to alleviate homelessness in their local communities already fund emergency shelters. But they are not a long-term solution. Partnerships with local governments to support more of it could therefore be one of the best ways for companies to do more.
Commercial vehicles and online deliveries make city traffic worse and carry significant economic costs that demand creative solutions. Attracting energetic residents and thriving businesses are signs of urban success. But they also make traffic worse, as does the growing congestion caused by e-commerce deliveries.
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Commercial vehicles CVs , such as trucks, vans, and buses, can be particular trouble. Trucks accounted for 7 percent of urban travel in the United States in , for example, but 18 percent of congestion. The rise of e-commerce has added to the flow. Congestion costs can be surprisingly high. Logistics staging areas outside city centers urban consolidation centers , load pooling, and parcel lockers have proved successful in reducing miles driven by CVs and the number of deliveries, as well as costs.
Allowing night deliveries reduces congestion during peak hours and lowers vehicle-related emissions.
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People would find ways to circumvent the law, with the costs of circumvention borne by borrowers. To the extent the law was obeyed, Locke concluded, the chief results would be less available credit and a redistribution of income away from "widows, orphans and all those who have their estates in money. In an influential article titled "The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action," Merton identified five sources of unanticipated consequences. The first two—and the most pervasive—were ignorance and error.
Merton labeled the third source the "imperious immediacy of interest. That type of willful ignorance is very different from true ignorance. A nation, for example, might ban abortion on moral grounds even though children born as a result of the policy may be unwanted and likely to be more dependent on the state. The unwanted children are an unintended consequence of banning abortions, but not an unforeseen one.
The Protestant ethic of hard work and asceticism, he wrote, "paradoxically leads to its own decline through the accumulation of wealth and possessions. For example, the warnings earlier in this century that population growth would lead to mass starvation helped spur scientific breakthroughs in agricultural productivity that have since made it unlikely that the gloomy prophecy will come true. Merton later developed the flip side of this idea, coining the phrase "the self-fulfilling prophecy. By , Merton, age eighty, had produced six hundred pages of manuscript but still not completed the work.
The law of unintended consequences provides the basis for many criticisms of government programs. As the critics see it, unintended consequences can add so much to the costs of some programs that they make the programs unwise even if they achieve their stated goals. For instance, the United States has imposed quotas on imports of steel in order to protect steel companies and steelworkers from lower-priced competition.
The quotas do help steel companies. But they also make less of the cheap steel available to U. As a result the automakers have to pay more for steel than their foreign competitors do. So policy that protects one industry from foreign competition makes it harder for another industry to compete with imports. Similarly, Social Security has helped alleviate poverty among senior citizens. Many economists argue, however, that it has carried a cost that goes beyond the payroll taxes levied on workers and employers. Martin Feldstein and others maintain that today's workers save less for their old age because they know they will receive Social Security checks when they retire.
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