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Geopolitics | Geopolitical Futures - Keeping the future in focus
Forecasts The World in Dec. The World in Read now. Forecast The Road to Dec. Friedman speculates in the book that the United States will probably become a close ally of some Eastern European countries: Around , a Polish-led military alliance of countries in Eastern Europe will begin to form, which is referred to in the book as the "Polish Bloc. In the early s, the New Cold War will end when the economic strain and political pressure on Russia, coupled with Russia's declining population , and poor infrastructure , cause the federal government of Russia to completely collapse, much like the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Other former Soviet countries will fragment as well. Around this time, China PRC will politically and culturally fragment as well. The book asserts that the rapid economic development of China since will cause internal pressures and inequalities in Chinese society. Regional tension in the PRC will grow between the prosperous coastal regions and the impoverished interior regions. Friedman gives two possible scenarios: He works on the assumption that fragmentation is the most likely scenario. In the s, the collapse of the Russian government and the fragmentation of mainland China will leave Eurasia in general chaos.
Other powers will then move in to annex or establish spheres of influence in the area, and in many cases, regional leaders will secede. In Russia, Chechnya and other Muslim regions , as well as the Pacific Far East will become independent, Finland will annex Karelia , Romania will annex Moldova , Tibet will gain independence with help from India , Taiwan ROC will extend its influence into mainland China, while the United States, European powers , and Japan will re-create regional spheres of influence in mainland China.
In the s and s, three main powers will emerge in Eurasia: Turkey , Poland , and Japan. Initially supported by the United States, Turkey will expand its sphere of influence and become a regional power , much as it was during the time of the Ottoman Empire. The Turkish sphere of influence will extend into the Arab world , which will have increasingly fragmented by then, and north into Russia and other former Soviet countries.
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Israel will continue to be a powerful nation and will be the only country in the immediate region to remain outside the Turkish sphere of influence. However, Israel will be forced to come to an accommodation with Turkey due to Turkey's military and political power. Friedman predicts that Japan will change its foreign policy during this time period, becoming more geopolitically aggressive, beginning a major military buildup.
Friedman predicts that Japan will build military strength capable of regionally projecting power across East Asia during this time. Finally, Poland will continue to lead its military alliance, the "Polish Bloc. Now possessing substantial military strength, Poland will expand its economic influence into what was formerly European Russia , and will begin to compete with Turkey for influence in the important economic region of the Volga River Valley. Around this time, space programs for military use will begin to emerge, and Japan and Turkey will increasingly begin to develop military capabilities in space.
At the beginning of this period, the United States will be allied with all three powers.
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By , the United States will have been allied with Turkey and Japan for over 75 years. However, in the years after the end of the Second Cold War and collapse of Russia, the United States will gradually become uneasy as Turkey and Japan expand their military power and economic influence. Establishing regional spheres of influence, Turkey and Japan will begin to threaten American interests. The growth of Turkish and Japanese naval power, and their military activities in space will be particularly disturbing to the United States. The book asserts that Japan and Turkey, having similar interests, probably will form an alliance near the end of this period, in an effort to counter the overwhelming global power of the United States.
The book also speculates that Germany and Mexico may possibly join this anti-United States coalition, although it is generally unlikely. In this coming confrontation, the United States will be allied with the "Polish Bloc," probably with Britain , a restabilized China, India, and a reunified Korea. By the s, there will be global tension and competition between these two alliances.
The book also predicts that decades of low birthrates in developed countries, especially in Europe , will result in dramatic cultural, social, and political shifts through the first half of the 21st century. These countries will experience economic and social strain, caused by a diminishing working age demographic and a rapidly aging population. Would you like to tell us about a lower price?
If you are a seller for this product, would you like to suggest updates through seller support? Along with these classical uses, modern topics are introduced through the book's new features, which include: A new chapter on multivariate time series analysis, including a discussion of the challenge that arise with their modeling and an outline of the necessary analytical tools.
A new chapter on nonlinear and long memory models, which explores additional models for application such as heteroscedastic time series, nonlinear time series models, and models for long memory processes. Coverage of structural component models for the modeling, forecasting, and seasonal adjustment of time series. Read more Read less.
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There was a problem filtering reviews right now. Please try again later. My fundamental beef with the book is not the content, but rather the presentation. I have taught portions of what's in the book for decades in the classroom on an undergraduate level. The author's writing style was such that even in those parts I could barely follow the presentation.
I have bought literally hundreds of books from Amazon over the years they've been in business.
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This will be the first one I return. If you're trying to teach yourself this material, find a better aid. If you're buying this for a live class, don't skip class. Found an even better resource. Kindle Edition Verified Purchase. Kindle version of this book is completely unreadable. The Kindle version need to be PDF encoding of photographed pages, not half-baked math typesetting. Literally none of the formulas in the Kindle edition of this book are readable. Shape up, Amazon - this is a very uncharacteristically low-quality product. If do you want learn statistics this