Reversal

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The appeal works great if performed last. President Trump has said he would be 'proud' to shut down his own government if he does not secure the funding. Donald Trump has been forced into an embarrassing retreat after threatening a government shutdown if he could not get funding for his border wall. Press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said the White House was willing to work with Congress to avert the partial shutdown, with just days before it is due to kick in, at midnight on Friday. Donald Trump has been forced into an embarrassing reversal over the US government shutdown.

reversal - Wiktionary

We want to shut down the border from illegal immigration. Senate leaders are furiously negotiating to avert the federal shutdown, which could see nine of 15 vital agencies — including the departments of transport, commerce, homeland security and agriculture — closed for the Christmas holidays.

It would be the third in just two years, taking place just as the President departs to spend Christmas at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida at the end of the week. Where are the additional monies for this wall going to come from and why is [Trump] asking the American taxpayer for them when he promised Mexico was going to pay?

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Anytime you hear a Democrat saying that you can have good Border Security without a Wall, write them off as just another politician following the party line. Instead, we kick off this new week with an a sharp decline in US equity indices.

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This is not just a strong, single-session move. If I were so inclined, I would point out this was a provocative break to suggest we are seeing progress on a head-and-shou l ders reversal that the market spent all of setting up. That would be premature to call though.

Another perspective for which it is too early to claim unchecked fear on is the recognition that at its current rate, the index is floating its worst December performance in over eight decades. That is a resounding repudiation of the notion that December historically represents one of the strongest months of the year for equities with the most restrained activity measures.

Yet, before panic takes over, it is worth noting that indeed liquidity will drain next week - for better or worse - and the recent US tumble is far outpacing any of its global risk counterparts. Another reason the sharp move to start this week was so exceptional was that it contradicted the usual moderation expected in the lead up to major event risk.

The Fed rate decision is already a high profile fundamental charge in normal conditions, but what we are dealing with is far from typical.

The Fed is heavily anticipated to continue its path of policy normalization for a fourth rate hike this year. There is no other major central bank that is even close to its hawkish tempo. What's more, this event will include forecasting in the Summary of Economic Projections SEP that the market has decided to watch very closely for what the future holds for policy from the world's largest central bank with obvious implications to global growth and financial conditions.

Perhaps there is growing recognition for the dependency risk trends have placed upon years of extreme accommodation from the world's largest central banks. That would be reasonable given volatility and how far the Fed has progressed in its bid towards normalizing policy. Backing out of forward guidance slowly however is important to promoting stability.

In reversal, White House shifts border wall funding demands, wants to avoid shutdown

Therein lies the rub. The Trump administration has drawn greater attention to the central bank's policies likely in a bid to discourage further tightening.

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There remains separation of powers between the executive branch and central bank, but the market can - and has - changed the Fed's course in the past. The President remarked that the Fed should "take the win" as the Dollar is strong, there is "virtuall y no inflation" and other countrie s are 'blowing up'.

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In turn, his trade policy director Peter Navarro said the Fed was the greatest threat to US growth going forward. In more familiar news, the chaos surrounding the Brexit negotiations remains properly unhinged. Following the Prime Minister's no-confidence survival last week which followed a week of Parliament finding her in contempt and affording itself more power over navigation in the event of a 'no deal' , May announced the next vote would occur on January 14th.

She would also suggest that she does not expect any breakthroughs with the EU until next year and again that she would not consider a second referendum.