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Another story of bad boys - Le final. My Dilemma is You - tome 3. My Dilemma is You - tome 2. La Loi du coeur. My Dilemma is You - tome 1. Another story of bad boys - tome 1. Another story of bad boys - tome 2. Je ne te hais plus du tout - tome 3. Parole d'un Bad Boy. Moi, Simon, 16 ans, Homo Sapiens. Une braise sous la cendre. Ma raison de vivre - tome 3: Ma raison de respirer. Y - tome 2. Le Joyau - Livre II. Ma raison de vivre - tome 2: Ma raison de vivre - tome 1.
Alice au pays des zombies. Pamphlet contre un vampire. Would a defaulting chancellor be taken to the Tower of London? But the problem with the plans is not only that they are barely credible, but also that the envisaged tightening is probably too little and the final level of public sector net debt, at around 60 per cent of GDP, too high for comfort, given the likelihood of further adverse shocks. Even so, cuts in spending are larger than in similar episodes in the postwar period. While the chancellor has presented overall numbers, he has shied away from exploring the full implications and, still more, the nature of the choices the country faces.
This is the debate the UK must have. It must start from a realisation: Those are the big questions in UK politics. Serious politicians must not duck them. ECB orders Austria to nationalise Hypo bank, fearing domino crisis Austria has nationalised the Carinthian lender Hypo Group after it ran into trouble on hidden losses in Eastern Europe, offering a stark reminder that Europe's banks are not yet out of the woods. Chancellor Werner Faymann sought to calm the fury of Austrian citizens and opposition leaders, saying there would have been "catastrophic consequences" if the bank had been allowed to fail.
Austria's press said that Mr Faymann was under intense pressure from Jean-Claude Trichet, the head of the European Central Bank, who feared a "domino-effect" that would undermine other banks and damage Austria's sovereign rating. Samir Patel from the consultancy BH2, who advised clients this Autumn to prepare for a Balkan storm, said the Hypo rescue was unlikely to prove an isolated event.
Things are still getting worse in the Balkans," he said. The state-owned BayernLB bought Hypo during an expansionist spree at the height of the bubble in While the bank is in no danger itself, the latest losses will force it to tighten lending to boost capital ratios, risking a further credit squeeze over coming months.
The Hypo rescue casts doubt on assurances by Vienna's authorities that Austrian lending to Eastern Europe and the Balkans poses no threat to the banking system. While this staved off a liquidity crisis, it has not solved the slow-burn problem of rising defaults on East European loans books. Social Democrats called for the resignation of the Right-wing coalition in Carinthia, calling the debacle the "greatest financial scandal in the history of the state".
Austria's hard-Left KPO party called for the total nationalisation of Austria's banks and insurance companies. Italian banks fear crunch from Basel II banking rules Italy's leading bankers and business leaders have called for the Basel II rules on bank capital to be shelved or delayed, fearing a serious credit crunch next year. Firms have a great need for credit and they are going to reveal awful books for , with the result that their access to credit will suffer," he said. German banks have also demanded a rethink on the new rules, predicting a serious crunch for small business over the coming months without a change of course.
Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research said the move to tighten capital rules in the middle of a deep downturn was a grave error, comparing it to the worst follies of policy-makers during the Great Depression.
He fears that such tightening may tip Europe and America into deflation next year. No lenders have required a state rescue. However, it can take three years for the damage to surface from losses on corporate loans. Few banks have made full provisions. The Basel Committee met last week to thrash out plans. It is expected to offer guidance over the next month, moving towards a regime of "risk adjusted capital" RAC that puts more stress on how leverage is used and is less tolerant of hybrid capital. VK, RE your final comment on the China succession topic.
A Keynesian knows he has achieved perfection not when there is no debt left to add, but when there is nothing sovereign left to take away. Ilargi and Stoneleigh What is your opinion of the pro-con banter in the article regarding the significance of bringing back Glass Steagall? It sounds to me like more soundbite subterfuge to avoid accountability Well Mr Market is a master player is he not, first he creates a mini panic that has many people crying out, "head for the hills" then he deftly creates a slope of hope, which we are in now, where all the suckers who ran for the hills realize how 'naive' they were and start buying any risky asset in sight.
This year Mr Market has gotten quite a leg up in emerging markets, the anti USD play, Gold, stocks, corporate bonds but all year long Mr Market has been giving people cause for worry, what is it with those pesky 10 Year bonds! Why are they so low some people say? Then why did the difference between the long end of the curve and short end of the curve reach new highs? Mr Market gives hints to those who see and those who listen.
What goes up, must come down. As Bill Bonner says, the extent of the correction is equal and opposite to the deception that preceded it. So the flight to safety will be grand, when those on the slope of hope get caught up at the greasy bit, when they suddenly lose grip and tumble far down the world. So the USD will rise in value much to the shock of all, maybe even double in value from present values. Oil will fall substantially, a return to 10 dollars per barrel or less is in the cards. Gold must fall, eventually I see Gold returning to or less. Emerging markets will get battered hard, I mean the wind will get sucked out of them much faster then the US.
Remember emerging markets are peripheries, the flight to safety will see them crumble as money rushes to the perceived safety of the core countries. The world will groan and moan, for as yet we have not seen a real bust, whether it's the gravity defying Australia whose economy must contract sharply or bubbly Canadian house prices whose vintage is decidedly toxic or those overpriced hovels in England, their true value must eventually come out.
Mr Market believes in the truth and the truth is that all those factories are worth Zero in China, those houses are worth close to Zero and my how wages will fall! It will certainly be a sight to behold. Corporate bonds will get hammered and many companies will default as they simply can't pay back, this will damage or end many too big to bailout entities. Even the strongest companies are not worth the risk as cash flow all but dries up like quality entertainment on US television: The long end of the curve is an attractive place to be, the differential between the long and short ends is far too large IMO.
Market of course, he alone is the giant amongst men. Obviously a bank run could definitely accelerate events rapidly! We could see Stoneleigh's cascade event in the middle of next year or earlier as people lose confidence in the system. Once fear grips the population, I suspect Mr Market will be looking forward to creating bank holidays and closures of the stock market.
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Banning those 'evil' short sellers etc etc. So next year we look all set for shortages of goods and services as companies go bust due to their target market having no money. At massive bank runs and heightened fear, but always remember at the height of that fear, Mr Market will once again create a slope of hope much like but much worse yet at the time it will a God send, a recovery is finally here the battered and the wounded will say only to find they are yet again on a slope of hope.
The slope leading to the abyss. I don't see why it is assumed that the Market will call the boyz. While the data remains hidden the Market can't see any better than the rest of us. What do I not grasp about the market? In two words - Cash Flow. The big boyz have borrowed trillions upon trillions of dollars from the rest of the world and each other. By the bigboyz need to refinance around 7 Trillion at the least that is what they are telling us. Now a basic rule of banking is obviously you want to make a profit, so you borrow cheaply and make loans at a higher rate.
Now currently banks are not making many loans, infact both European and American banks are contracting the amount of loans they make while holding onto record reserves of cash. Alas, they still hold trillions upon trillions of derivatives that require interest payments and they hold trillions in Commercial Real Estate, Housing, Loans to large and small businesses, corporate bonds etc.
Now because the vast majority of money supply is credit and that supply of credit has been declining, the amount of cash in the economy declines! So income streams from mortgages, commercial loans, companies start declining as these companies lack any cash flow. So while the assets may be marked to myth for quite a while, the cash flow declines start having very real impacts.
As cash flowing into the banking system decline, how can banks meet their trillions in obligations? In the form of loans, bonds, deposit interest and the like. So if less income is coming in, the less likely you are to be able to pay your liabilities regardless of how high you 'book' your level 3 assets at.
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So Mr Market will start calling the boyz when serious cash flow problems start emerging, in today's slope of hope rally, participants such as the banks and corporations have issued a record amount of bonds to stave off their cash flow problems and keep operations going. But trying to solve a debt problem by adding more debt is just plain silly in the long term. So when the next wave down hits, when market participants realize how bad the real economy is due to; 1 The hidden psychological forces that Stoneleigh mentions. We will see a flight to safety and a cascade down in the markets.
VK - thank you for reposting your awesome comment about Mr. I wish I had your insight when I was younger. But I am trying to catch up now before time runs out. Can the UK bail them out? Or does the UK go bust at the same time? The theme for me at the moment is denial. I don't think anyone who I have spoken to or sent my "document of doom" has changed their behaviour one iota. I have seen no solar water heating panels thrown up and no extra veg gardens dug.
Those who have lost their jobs are still hoping the jobs market will improve enough for them to get a new one. And politicians expect or hope that economic growth is renewed as soon as possible. Sadly both sets of people will be disappointed. Maybe will start to see the end of denial for some people. As soon as those in charge realize this the better for all. GG "What is your opinion of the pro-con banter in the article regarding the significance of bringing back Glass Steagall?
Only the Cosmic Muffin knows for sure how many gigabytes have been shuffled in the effort to explain or obscure where we stand and why. Let me now make a simple observation about that that's really the only kind I can do. Explained in language even a fool like me can comprehend just how totally screwed our world is. Me, I'm throwing in with the old Mayan thinkers. December , as good a date as any Good luck on the other side. IM Nobody One more thing I would like to add is of course the declining marginal productivity of debt. Now there's the old adage, All men are created equal but some more so then others.
Tis the same with debt really. Not all debt is equal, some of it is more useful then other debt, for eg Private sector debt is more capital efficient then public sector debt though both are socially inefficient in the long run but that is a story for another day. A corporation is going to use debt more efficiently then the Government is ever going to as it has a profit motive to extract the most out of that borrowed dollar.
Now things get interesting, the time of creation of that debt is also very relevant. In the 's a car, good affordable housing, a nice university education etc cost far less then it did today. Although I have no experience of living in the 70's you may ask our resident buzzard El G ; So in the 70's and 80's a dollar borrowed was worth much more then it is today. You could buy more land, more house, more car, more education and more stock! Today a dollar won't do much as it has steadily devalued over time by a process we all know and love called inflation whereby your purchasing power as well as borrowing power declines over time.
So today we have a situation where for every dollar that an individual or a company borrows, the system gets out maybe 10cents or less of growth. In the 's or so, it is estimated that every dollar borrowed would generate 3 dollars of growth. That's why all those trillions in bailouts, guarantees, subsidies, loans etc are having such negligible impact. Trillions of borrowing to get a few paltry billion in 'growth'. A debt saturated society is thus faced with two conundrums as time progresses.
Thus we reach a point where for every dollar borrowed we have a contraction I was going to use that ghastly word 'negative growth' but decided against it due to debt saturation. So the marginal cost of taking on one more dollar of debt is detrimental to society as a whole as the marginal benefit of that one more dollar is negative. This is precisely how societies decline and as in our present debt based monetary system, the principal must be paid with interest by society as a whole in one form or the other.
This is either done through 1 A deflationary depression where debt is defaulted upon and living standards plummet and millions are left broke and homeless - a societal disaster. Obviously we here at TAE are deflationistas as we understand the mechanics of why deflation will take place - constrained lending by banks and the inability of the FED to keep pace with credit destruction and the unwillingness of foreigners to finance Govt deficits indefinitely. By the way, actually paying back the debt is impossible in a system that requires constant debt creation just to keep even, remember the Red Queen in Alice of Wonderland?
One has to run faster just to keep up.
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It must now default on the sovereign debt and basically declare a Universal Jubilee -- and even THAT probably ends the currency and economy at minimum, and probably the entire USA at maximum. I would say openly that I believe it will happen in , but the fact is that it should've happened already. The fact is that it's going to happen soon because you finally are seeing cases in which countries are going to have to be literally sold off to pay whatever debts to whoever has enough resources and the like to deal with it all.
Sovereign debts are now a reality, and will literally explode in And without borrowing the money, there is no United States. There's no way they physically can. I fully see the day where we will literally lose states in the Union, replaced by Federal "districts", protectorates, or whatever you want to call it. The checks stop, and so does social order. We made it through this year, somehow.
I do not believe we will make it through next year. That's not going to hold up for long. I know you are adverse to Karl's musings, Ilargi, but there's a point he makes that I want to expound on. He says the monetary base of any modern economy is the sum of all unencumbered assets on which one is able and willing to borrow. I say now that that sum is zero. The entire system of the derivatives and the "bezzle" has created a situation where I believe there are NO unencumbered assets left of any kind nor that they haven't been encumbered many times over. And, if there were, there is no willingness or ability to borrow against them anymore.
Which see the massive debts which must, now, default, for one example. Just a matter of when. There is no imperative anymore to paying off consumer debt. On top of this, without basically having your freedom taken away, the conduct of the banks actually makes it implausible to actually pay off your consumer debt. This is one of the reasons why the end of this bubble will mean the end of a massive portion of the US population.
Not even talking about how many figuratively can't live but for debt, but for how many it is actually a literal fact! Basically, the Sheriffs are going to have to come, guns drawn, to get people out of the homes the banks never stopped owning because the mortgages were basically never meant to be paid off in the first place.
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You can basically come right out and say it: Every mortgage is a default waiting to happen, now. This will help lead to 10, because there is no use in playing along now. Only with "Extend and Pretend". Without that, there's no banks, no stock markets, no currency. And as far as the "days of old" and how many own stocks: Especially with the PPT, one has to wonder how much the government already owns! Firebomb threats and torches and pitchforks at UC Berkeley which I will be surprised if it stays open much longer, in this political and budget climate!
The incident in Italy If the government cannot prop up enough people, they will fall in riot. The checks will stop coming, for many, in Then, it's all over. VK - Your Mr. Thanks for the shared effort. That would be a good time to buy and put back some useful amount of PM's. Alex Tring - If denial in the UK is on a par with the states it is overt and abundant.
With some it is still disbelief, not yet even to the denial stage. TV pundits don't help any with their "the recession is waning or ending" comments. Obama is owned by the banks. And, now, it's a very simple proposition: I can't see how Obama, between his ownership by the banks and the increasing anger of the people, makes it through Just a note to straighten out a bent statistic: Ilargi and Bageant to the contrary. There were, sigh, more of us suckers than you thought and also a bigger mandate as this is a big margin in modern US Pres. But hey, I guess they showed us!
Here is the NYT data: Redrawn from the New York Times, November 7, President Obama won Obama margin of victory was 7. In the Electoral College, Obama had Obama's margin of victory was VK - I love it!!! VK, I think part of the problem with marginal utility of debt is what the debt is used for today. Once, debt was short-term and used to finance a new factory or rail-way -- something that helped leverage other resources more efficiently and therefore could be paid back quickly. Now, individuals use high-interest revolving debt for common luxuries and long-term debt for homes, and businesses carry debt against short-term assets like account receivables while leasing buildings which in turn has a long-term loan against it.
There is no "leverage" in the leverage anymore. The result, perhaps aligning with what you said about older debt, is that new debt sticks around and is hard to retire, yet it consumes cash-flow voraciously while it also drives up prices. Seems to me the gov't is like a guy put on half-salary who takes out a K loan to cover his house payment, only to find that now he won't have the cash-flow to buy groceries now that he's paying himself and his mortgage holder. Maybe the gov't is hoping that inflation can be used to default the debt in slow motion, but even that would require debt growth to be less than inflation.
At what point will the gov't decide to completely screw foreign holders instead of US taxpayers? That'll be the interesting turning point in the collapse. VK, Thanks for your primer-class comments which lead to: The vampire squids in control of our government can pull whatever levers they choose. Is the debt magnitude beyond even their ability to influence this succession's timing? Also, which disaster would they prefer?
There is no reason for the market to be at their present high. This is being said over and over in mainstream media. The manipulation has been done. There are stronger forces involved in manipulating the price of oil. Just to list a few Its not going to be the savior of the middle class lifestyle. There was a huge gap in my knowledge. I can see now why compounding interest on debt is a death spiral! Ilargi reminds us to-day we are still in a credit crunch.
Your postings fill out the details of what credit crunch means. My Cdn province, Ontario, talks this week of selling crown assets like Ontario Hydro, Ontario lottery commission I fear assets that serve the common good will end up in the hands of owners who don't. That is some high and unaccounted for cost of debt.
VK No need to consult Mr. Buzzard about that 70's show. Heck, I can remember the 50's. The fact you are so young makes you even more impressive. I have seen Fekete's work on marginal utiltity of debt and how if it goes negative, you are toast. On an individual level, many people have already experienced that. I suspect we are already there on a national level, as are many other countries. Starcade Funny you should bring up the notion of losing states. It was recently reported, don't recall where, that California did look into the possibility of reverting to territorial status so that the Feds would have to help with the budget problem.
Apparently, it was determined to be not constitutionally provided for. There won't be much demand for it. Yet more wishful thinking. We enjoy governance by an equal opportunity debtor. They don't care who they screw. I think VK's postings today show pretty clearly that collapsing govs will have no discretion in who gets screwed. It will be everybody. What can we expect? What does it matter? In the last few weeks stock markets have been twitchy and losing ground. As the recovery proves elusive, a few national economies teeter on the edge of insolvency and governments ponder a slew of bad choices, investors have been rushing back into greenbacks.
There are several reasons. One is that the US dollar is still the global reserve currency and perceived to be the safest of safe havens offering total liquidity and shelter from debt storms. That will not happen. In some form, both of these will happen, especially if Republicans win a few key seats next year. This will be very bullish for the greenback, even though it means more years of slow growth. Thirdly, the longer the American dollar remains weak, the more its trading partners will cry foul at newly-cheap US exports.
This has the effect of shipping American unemployment to other jurisdictions, which is the last thing places like Britain a key Iran-Iraq ally need. So while Washington has hundreds of billions in bonds to sell each year — the majority to offshore investors — the greater the incentive to stabilize the dollar. The easiest way to do that is with monetary policy — a quick little rate hike. It does not just happen.
Leaders have to consciously decide to devalue a currency, and then do it in a massive and concerted fashion, generally with the overnight recall or effective redenomination of existing currency. This, I can assure you, will never take place in the US, as it would be the death knell of the entire North American economy. Washington is not about to impoverish its citizens. Consumer spending has simply not rekindled, household savings rates are higher in the States and lower here , and prices keep on falling. This — not any hyper-inflation mythology — is what keeps Ben Bernanke up at night.
By the way he recently cashed in his own VRM for a locked-in mortgage. Make no mistake, we are not out of the economic woods yet. Investors today would be wise to along with a good equity strategy: But wait for Armageddon, currency collapse, wheelbarrow cash and Mad Max? In your dreams, puss. Brian Entire essays of outside bloggers should either: Two different possible dire outcomes. It won't matter to the middle class if you are right or if I'm right. I am going now to go full bore on the prep stuff I have been putting off while I deluded myself into thinking I had a chance at a secure position at the company.
I am back on the shelf,on the direct orders of the former owners son,who now is now cutting expenses I may get a few hours a week,but it looks like un-employment checks will be the norm It hurt,but in my gut it was expected. Like when you take a hard one you know is coming in a barfight I am very much in agreement with the premise of todays post. I saw a youtube from firedoglake[http: Ed Shultz,who is not what I think of as being a real progressive,called out o-man on the tube O-man berated the progressives and told the basically to suck it up and go for Liebermans insurance giveaways.
And Schultz called him out on it on a national network There is a few folks who are complaining about being sold down the rive And these are providing a groundwork for resistance to any other shitty plans o-man and co. I am specific about medicare,and ssn. O-mans job,is the same bush[the lesser] tried Brian,it would be nice if you were correct I think there will be anger unbound,and civil unrest..
The people are hoppin mad about this healthcare rape,and this is only one of many triggers We have allowed the worst amongst us to form criminal conspiracy beyond the hand of law,Ones that are so powerful they laugh at us from behind golden gates My own belief is that the corruption has brought with it the collapse and downfall of the system that allowed it to form,much as a disease will kill the host. The plutocracy that rules this country is a disease that will kill its host. I am with greenpa on this They tried to game the system,and destroyed it.
Greenpas analogy of it being 40 milliseconds after the detonation is probably the best way I have herd it described. It would have been nice to have the additional funds that full employment could give The subject hasn't made any payments on multiple credit cards for days, but a review of his credit report revealed that not one of his creditors shows him late in his payments. One reason for this would be the banks are opportunistically waiting on the possibility of a fortuitous balance transfer - in other words, they're hoping for a greater fool to emerge to be left holding the bag of uncollectible, and therefore worthless, debt.
KD opines that this would seem to compromise the meaning of FICO scores and the integrity of the credit bureau system. One supposes the logical conclusion of this debt crisis is that the system as whole is fatally compromised. There will be nothing in the entire system that can be accepted at face value. Everyone has a pet theory as to why the Corpse Economy hasn't fallen over just yet.
It keeps staggering around the ring like a fighter that has taken a vicious series of blows but still stands, looking like a Zombie meal. What has been referred to as a 'Stealth Stimulus', similar to banks letting people be squatters in their own houses rather than incur the costs of foreclosure and the worse prospect of having to write the loan off as Bad.
Again, those lucky to get that kind of queer deal can use what resources they have left to keep buying cheez doodles and Plasma Screens for a bit longer. Screw grain mills and Berkey filters, the bottom is in Baby, good times are just around the next cliff face.
Channel mortgage payments into food and gas and Chicken Littles into the dollar to keep financing treasury auctions til the Beast finally and mercifully collapses under it's own obscene weight. Hey, what's your New Year's resolution? I think the idea they had over years ago is making its way back again: That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness.
What I'm proposing is that they are not going to have a choice but to make certain states military protectorates under Martial Law. In my neck of the woods, several school districts are already contemplating which schools will be closed for the school year. Let the kids pay the price instead, and--AND--the kids in poor neighborhoods at that. After all, despite the controversy that engulfed and blinded others to the real talent that made Jackson a public figure in the first place, Ilargi was there celebrating his life and talent at the end.
Yo Snuffy, You're already more prepared than most. If anyone has a good chance at weathering the proverbial storm you do! In the end we're all dead anyway. At least you know for sure how things are in your workplace. M, I think athletes might as well have a some sort of role-model function. And besides, he just gets that thing because he plays the most promoted "sport" on the planet.
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You forgot pool and snooker in your list. Haile Gebreselassie is -much- more deserving in my view. But not as flashy. Though a real hombre in Ethiopia. He's won everything he's tried. As for the schools: Don't underestimate what will be done to them. Because we're blinded by one-dimensiaonl ideologies, our societies are no longer willing to support fields that offer no direct profit.
A sort of self-erosion. The most talented won't be able to get schooling, and even if they do, they can drop dead from the slightest inflictions. Then again, that's how it always was. Go to Predictions For He has it figured! He even has a 2 to 3 year timeline! Unfortunately, The required leader to go against the banking system would be committing suicide. Best wishes to you.
One issue that I " predict " to come up in is the cash stash. No doubt TAE readers who have been keeping cash outside the banking system barely register on any statistical chart. However I wonder if banks will start to notice any decrease in depositors accounts? Anyone think many more people are putting cash under a mattress? If so will the gummint legislate against it by reducing permissable withdrawal amounts?
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