The Rag Letters

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He involved them in betrayal, robbery, and murder. He left them doing time. This may well have decreased to under 10m since then as a result of surrenders boosted by surrenders due to upheld complaints , but by any measure the problem is enormous. Take a look at history What can we learn from history? Phase 1 of the three-phase endowment complaint process saw complaint rates of around 1.

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Accurate prediction of complaint rates for phase 3, which is just starting, is therefore vital for an assessment of the compensation and reserving requirements. In order to achieve an accurate prediction of complaint rates, the industry must take a number of additional factors into account, not least, the timing of the dispatch of re-projection letters and press activity. Given the impact that size of shortfall has on complaint rates, this guidance will have a huge influence on complaint rates but it is by definition specific to each life company there is no one-size-fits-all solution.

How long is the tail?

An equally important challenge for the industry is to determine the timing of likely complaints. There is little point arranging an increase in staff to deal with expected complaints if a better answer is to use half the staff for twice as long! There is also a danger of complacency, as complaint rates early in the reprojection exercise will appear low if no regard is had to the tail.

These decay curves are notoriously difficult to forecast.

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It did not, however as has widely been assumed , materially increase complaint volumes compared with what would be expected on the basis of increased shortfalls. Once the run-off table has been established from phases 1 and 2, it can be applied to the mailing profile for phase 3.

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It is also worth mentioning that the recent recovery in the stockmarket is unlikely to be the saviour that many believe.