Just look at the marriage rate that has dropped steadily and significantly for several decades as well as somewhat extended the age bracket at which people get married. I believe that the more things change the more they stay the same but I think current men are facing a somewhat different relationship environment and—at the risk of sounding gauche or politically incorrect—female species than the Boomers. For us HAM believers, we need to recognize that the investor immigrant program is only one of the ways money is coming into Canada.
Three others to consider: I am hopeful that putting an end to the investor class immigrant will go a long way in helping to correct this over-heated Vancouver market, however, we still need to remember that there are no restrictions on foreign ownership of Canadian real estate. The Globe did a piece about desperate and shameless couples demanding cash wedding gifts to cover their expenses. These couples were buckling under the pressure of rising expectations for what should be offered at a wedding, and so ended up spending the big day dreading the final bill sad, when it should be the happiest day of their lives.
Zero cents on the dollar for the photo booth or the chocolate fondue fountain or the open bar for your closest friends. That student, Moray Watson, is an accountant who says he is an opponent of Islamic extremism and enrolled in the course partly to test the prerequisite in the syllabus. At peak, both Canada and the US had have similar average household incomes with income distribution not too far apart, and similar home prices and homeownership levels. How could that translate to them having vastly more subprime loans than we do?
We did 0 down 40s. Mortgage brokers complain on industry blogs about credit tightening, more income verification and stricter appraisals. Why all that if we were lending conservatively before? They talk about doing more subprime deals today, and even second mortgages. If a market rises long enough, it covers up all these sins, but if the music stops or unemployment blips up, the corpses in the loan portfolios start floating to the top.
Can anybody out there explain what the deal is? Is this some kind of reversion to some mean? Garth, from what I understand mortgage interest in the US is tax deductible. What would you estimate the normalizing factor to make Canadian and US debt levels more comparable given the deductibility of US mortgage interest and the associated toys bought on LOCs. I would think such a normalizing factor pushes Canadian debt levels above those of the US prior to the economic meltdown of Evictions have nearly tippled in Kitchener-Waterloo these last few months. Why do you think that is?
Read small letters on GIC contract. Other vanilla GICs are possible to cash, like bonds , based on circumstances. It is possible to cash out fixed GICs, you may lose principal, but get ful interest, just like sale of bonds before maturity. Maturity day market growth, not accumulated growth of the market. Very different from other typr of market investing. It is never a good deal even if you get the most possible return.
I will agree that now is not the the time to buy real estate. But if you bought 30 years ago? Sure it is a good time to sell… then what?
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Forever at other times. Tiny sq Bug with finished basement for off spring paying rent Kids read Adults in basement Maybe working together with the kids is a solution in these new times. Their RE market still crashed. We also received plenty of immigrant in the later 80s and early 90s. Our RE crashed at that time.
What pig? — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate
So I am assuming that since all the underlying equities Dividend 15 owns pay dividends in the 3. So you are really getting repayment of your original investment or return of capital appreciation as part of your distribution. Plus, in their annual report for the management expense ratio for the last 5 years has been between 1. Could be wrong here as I just took a quick look at the Dividend 15 annual report. But seems to make sense given its just a basket of TSX dividend payers. There is a probability that the housing market in Canada is fairly valued and will continue to chug higher.
I see the probable downside risks of Canadian RE much higher than many other investments, so am on the RE sidelines. Rates arent going to rise much more. Equities will eventually pullback big and investors will flock to bonds. Do you really think that US stocks can keeping shooting to the moon? You resent not feeling superior. Stay tuned folks more news coming down the pipe. This does not bode well for Vancouver. It seems Dad Nostradamus Jr.
However, currency manipulation may be playing a small part as well. The Thames is flooding Egham and another town, Staines which is west of central London. Staines is just 2. Elevation of Staines 18m. Garth, dig deeper into your data. Not some college grads. Is there anyway to close some loopholes in Toronto and rid ourselves of a fat, ignorant, crack-smoking temporary worker from the foreign land of Etobicoke? Yeah yeah I know its about jealousy but still worth a read http: Take this from someone with considerable experience in financial compliance, stay away from market-linked GICs unless you know what you are doing.
These products are rated high risk and you pay a pretty penny to own them. You must watch the new immigration policies being changed by the CPC with extreme caution. Hey Folks, Alberta is definitely slowing down in a bad way, and some houses here are underwater already. Low downpayment, slack lending standards, and two starry eyed kids are sure hooped right now.
Their credit will be destroyed for years. Sucks to be them. Watch out, listings in Vancouver are about to explode with the announcement of the end of the program. SHTF is a coming. Has nothing of substance to offer so he resorts to childish taunting and picking on typing errors with what he believes is his razor sharp wit. I have some news for you pimple err I mean Temple. Therefore, if they were to leave, they would literally cost us money plus the spot they used for that degree throughout that time.
Surely someone who comes here to study hard sometimes harder and wants to stay and work deserves a chance to contribute to society. What is less Canadian than that? And this is why we are in trouble. Misleading stats from a profession of real estate pumpers. The missing information rom your post is:. By this your scenario, this person may never pay off the mortgage is they continue getting a new 30year mortgage every time rates go up. Considers it money earned, like a dividend. Did food go up that much? Nuttall Published February 4, The federal Opposition Critic for Employment and Social Development says more policing of immigration consultants is needed after a Tyee series on the Temporary Foreign Worker Program exposed abuse of would-be immigrants by such organizations.
Oilsands jobs being taken by temp foreign workers, union saysCBC. Ironworkers replaced with TFWs still not rehired Despite promises to rehire Canadians who were replaced by foreign workers last week, Pacer Promec Joint Venture still has not offered the affected workers their jobs back. Suncor begins testing automated trucks Fort McMurray Todaywww.
Taxpayer Alert describes certain complex highly structured investment products that seek, amongst other things, to transfer franking credits. These products claim to offer investors the taxpayers exposure to a portfolio of listed securities and the benefit of franking credits whilst using a derivative instrument to effectively transfer the risk of investing in those securities from investors to the derivative counterparty. Imputation benefits including franking credits may attach to distributions paid by a company. An important principle underlying the imputation system is that imputation benefits should only be available to the true economic owners of the company http: On or after this point, the stock trades without its dividend rights.
The point about people bailing on their investments and cashing out is valid. Easy come, easy go. As always you make good points. A lot more separation between the borrower and the funder of the mortgage occurred and still occurs. As far as five year rates are teaser, yes those could increase. But in the U. They also has interest-only mortgages.
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To be clear I take no particular position on home prices in Canada. If interest rates rise a bit the Canadian debt to income line must come down. But if interest rates remain low the American debt to income line will likely rise.
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Wow, that was embarrassing to read. Which brokerage do you work for, so I can know never to do business with them? Just buy yourself a Cnd dividend ETF. This one looks more like a hedge fund where manager is guaranteed returns and investors foot the bill. Interest rates have to go up making it impossible for the over extended to pay their bills.
And even then, there will be a time lag while credit cards are maxed out and new cards are obtained to pay the minimum monthlys on the old ones. I have seen it happen. And if they have fixed mortgages, it could be years before the three percenters are reset. Garth, Your post today should be about the federal budget — break it down for the little guy and what it has in store for the wallet of the average Canadian.
Yeah I know that the firm takes profit. However considering the good returns in the last 10 years I thought it might be ok. For my dividend I will stick with my BBO etf. Your essential and incorrect meaning is that teachers are overpaid, i. I bet no one will oppose the political trend, kanatians were not even capable of a revolt years ago. The Upper Canada Rebellion was an insurrection against the oligarchic government of the British colony of Upper Canada present day Ontario in December I realize this is not a political blog so Garth may not wish to post the following.
I do think this should of concern to all Canadians. Finally… about time they found out the math did not add up with that type of program in place. But even at the peak, most homes were either paid off or financed by a prime fixed rate or 30 year loan. Look at prime vs. Canada had interest only loans: When CMHC was insuring 0 down 40s, the first ten years were allowed to be interest only. This is a great story: Note how small the numbers look, and that he got a decent two storey in suburban Washington.
Americans should be rushing to borrow more when they can lock in 30 year rates at near record lows. And when their house prices in many areas are still cheap.
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They should, they can, and I suspect they will. Watch for an uptick in American mortgage debt to income. Spoken like a Canadian. Actually the busiest US mortgage activity is with refis, which is intensely rate-sensitive. It is different in Alberta. I hear in other parts of the country it can variously stand for Hot Asiatic Money. By the way, H. Clinton is to be a Calgary visiter. Now it is pay to play time on the east side of the Rockies, oh say to 1, ft above sea level. I am so glad the P. Stand by for orders.
The other subprime crisis that nobody is talking about:. Canadian banks hit accelerator on U. Plan on buying a new car or truck? There's going to be a flood of inventory as GM et al stuff dealers with loads of inventory, forcing dealers to liquidate lots at discounted prices over the next year or so. That red line on the chart is definitely losing steam….
You also forget that they pay a hefty sum into their pension plans, and that their sick leave benefits have been under attack. I would tend to agree with you, but then there is the variable of the Wynnut. Actually no variable at all. If she wyins Ontario, every man, woman, child and dog is doomed.
Her and her tree hugging followers believe money comes falls from trees, anti business, pro Union far left of the NDP. She will give what ever teachers and unions demand. Sabotages his own party over and over. Does not know how or refuse to capitalize on the Tree huggers mistakes. No one, even when trying to be that stupid is that stupid. Under free trade we can move our business anywhere in North America faster than a rainbow flag can get hoisted at City Hall. The same will happen with real estate.
Harpo et al have been successful in destroying most of the middle class, and now F is puffing up to HELP the same people his policies destroyed. Typical smoke and mirrors. In the meantime, hang on to your wallet. So WHY did she take the time to apologize? Yep, she says she is sorry but does it anyway. I hope a lot of Albertans will remember this act come the next election. I spoke to many politicians about their having a blog. Their immediate response is that a blog will not provide the true message from the people because the blog can be manipulated by the owner, allowing only posts that carry what is favourable to the owner.
It is interesting how the masters of manipulation do not trust the power of manipulation. The point is carrying cost!! Even with a 1. It will not cause people who already own out of their home to sell it. Thus driving up supply. But you are right is should effect resale value, although in the last year the affordability has decrease and prices has stayed static. When you find where all this money to pay for million dollar homes is coming from, you let me know.
They provide services for money, on behalf of the public and in the vast majority of cases, puts the public good ahead of any profiteering. The private sector also provides services for money, on behalf of the public but for the most part puts profiteering ahead of the public good. How do private sector companies make money? By selling and marking up goods and services to the public. The public gets something in return for paying for it. There are also many, many private sector companies that benefit from contracts received through public sector outsourcing.
If you want to talk worker efficiency, there are fabulous and underperforming private sector workers, just as there are fabulous and underperforming public sector workers. It makes sense to have a public health care system. I am at peace knowing my tax dollars go to support that family with a premie that needed intensive medical care. I also pointed out before on claims: Real estate buyer likes this phrase, this will take of the fear of rate increase, sounds like purchasers are eternally rate increase proof.
I also found banks are still very generous on extending amor. Homeline, Line of Credit Demand loan type also make it possible to select any amortization at renewal. These are strange times. Most of the women that I know are stay at home moms. The career ones have slowly been pressured to give up the career and also stay home or do small self employed work. The men have either had to step up their game or their incomes have stayed stagnant. Very few people that I know invest in the markets. The majority invest in real estate. There are a number of people who will be putting their new builds on the market this spring, hoping to make a profit.
Everyone and their uncle is a real estate developer…. They see themselves as the creme of the crop, living in the best neighbourhoods. I recently looked at my own situation. Investments are in the positive… not super positive due to the downturn when we originally invested and unfortunately were not diversified enough and jumped in during bad timing… but the money is positive. I earn less… family responsibilities.
Spouse earns more… puts more time into work then I do. Definitely in the top percent of income earners… but lots of it stays in the corporation. Living far below our means. Our situation is positive and in theory will get better provided good health continues. The point is there are many many who are not in a good situation. Using cash advance services, home equity lines of credits…. I hear everyday from people that they are tight for cash.
Tight for cash on a daily basis not including planning for retirement. We are definitely in a situation of haves and have nots. The divide is greater then ever… but it may not be.. So far has put us in a very favourable situation at a young age. There is no inflation? You need to look at the big picture. We tend to notice when prices go up or package sizes shrink — I sure do. Even though food prices are going up, Canadians spend less of our budget on food than we used to. Everybody without a fat, indexed pension needs to be concerned with inflation, to the extent that they choose investments that will hold their value or grow in real terms.
Complaining that the orange juice cans shrank or that switching to pink salmon from sockeye is an affront? It just seems petty. Garth, upon reading posts like this, how about one day posting about how you expect rates to rise and why, and some of the influencing factors. Not so much with wages. Funny how Ontario only has the balls to increase the minimum wage after the USA significantly ups theirs.
In the private sector a poor performer, regardless of position in the organization, is moved out the door as soon as possible, whereas in the public sector a poor performer can look forward to be protected by the organization. It is easier to promote this poor performer to another department than making any attempt to move that poor performer out the door. The public sector system will provide a lot of additional training to improve the performance but ends up being a waste of taxpayer money.
These poor performers end up spending their entire career sucking the system. OTOH, an excellent performer in the public sector is punished by assigning more challenging tasks and kept in their current position because someone has to do the job now.
They have to prove it to me double or triple. All our rulers have sore arms form saluting false flags. Canadian Tire money is more legit that what we have. Americans not only can lock in an interest rate for 30 years. But if market interest rates happen to fall they are allowed to break out of the mortgage and refinance at a small fee.
What a generational opportunity the U. American mortgage debt to income should be higher than Canadian. I expect them to catch up to us. Not the other way round. I grew up in a small town from nowhere, but as a small lad knew the value of money at age 9. My parents would give me 50 cents three times a month to hit my bike to the barbershop for a haircut. I went to this tiny barber school instead and paid 20 cents to pocket the difference so by the end of the month had 90 cents hidden away.
This was my date money to ask a young girl to meet me for a movie with our bikes on a Saturday afternoon, as was a man of the world. It's worse then that. No resales, no condos, no b-lender loans.. So if premiums rose in the subprime market, it wouldn't even show up in CPI. This is because major farmers, wholesalers and other primary manufactures hedge commodities and fuel prices in the futures and forward markets before the goods are made. As their inventory hedged depletes, it will be re-stocked at a new market value. Whodatworks Book 2 Jul 14, Available for download now.
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